Author Topic: New Status of Contrarians  (Read 980 times)

Golden Oxen

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2014, 09:24:05 am »
Blah.

You know, it is damned difficult to get people to chat on a forum overall.  I hope you can get something going here, but it is tough to do.

I am also not half so difficult as you guys make it out to be.  long as you don't constantly complain, I post up your stuff.  I'll even take off the moderation if you keep to topic for a while.

i been at this game way longer than you guys, and because of that the Diner is not a no-show personal website.  If you can make this site popular , I am all for this. It is not easy to do though, so second guessing me on how I do it is ridiculous until you can do a better job with it.

RE

Hi RE, I understand your measuring a forum by it's popularity. It is an important measure for sure, but there are others.

Speaking for My personal Golden Oxen Forum, popularity or hits, Alexa ratings are not my goal at all.

I would be very happy to introduce  a few folks to stamp and coin collecting, befriend a few gold bugs for comments and ideas, and have a place to  discuss those topics as well as doom items and current news items and their, impact.

Of course talking to myself is not the goal either, but even if that were to occur some lurkers or passers by might get stimulated to look further into my fields of interest, and that would be my way of giving back to the hobby what it gave me. We are all different, our looks, goals, interests, views on matters and our view on what a successful forum is also differs.

If you do decide to lift the ban of free expression and communication with others you have placed on me, without restrictions, please let me know. I miss the Diner and feel I will always be an active or walkabout but never not a Diner. Hope you can understand that submitting my postings for approval is something I just cannot do. Call it the sin of Pride if you wish, but we all draw a line somewhere.     GO
Golden Oxen

MKing

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2014, 10:29:36 am »
Blah.

You know, it is damned difficult to get people to chat on a forum overall.  I hope you can get something going here, but it is tough to do.

I would generally disagree. Not a surprise. My experience talking with folks is that most of them drawn to a forum format want to discuss stuff. What is damned difficult to getting folks who AGREE with the boards theme to chat, on a niche topic of little constructive use to the population at large. And then you have to make sure that those who assemble to chat don't necessarily want to THINK about what they are discussing. But discussing stuff in general? SURE! Three buddies sitting around discussing theoretical physics is cool and fun...until a MIT theoretical physicist shows up, and suddenly the cool speculation turns out to be just that.

Forums allow the amateurs to speculate themselves to any scenario they'd wish, facts of the matter be damned. But the instant the conversation doesn't involve amateurs any more? That must be stopped, and you have followed the textbook forum guidelines on how to handle just such a dissenting opinion.

I have been on several more "general" boards for years, never banned, never censored, never admonished. Why? Because they are designed to encourage discussion without having a TPTB buy into a particular point of view. They have no skin in the game...if an industry expert shows up and pastes the nearest peak oil idiot to a wall, too bad for the peak oil idiot for not being able to defend their point of view.

Boards with a theme can't afford a well expressed dissent...it shuts down those who really don't know dick about the issues they are blathering on about, they feel belittled (and my general personality type sure doesn't help in this regard) because they have obviously never taken the time to actually LEARN their position. And when it shows, they look bad. My solution to this is always to learn more...turns out other folks don't agree with that perspective. Presto...the name calling begins. Along with other nefarious activities. ;D

Quote from: RE
I am also not half so difficult as you guys make it out to be.  long as you don't constantly complain, I post up your stuff.  I'll even take off the moderation if you keep to topic for a while.

I imagine GO and I are both completely capable of keeping on topic. That wasn't why the dust up started in the first place, it was the real world application of police state tactics to forum members. From people who some posters figured should know better....believing the statements made by such folks, rather than having my more empirical approach to predicting human behavior from personality type and precedent. Some folks are quite sensitive to such things, and you certainly didn't make it any better by pretending those concerns were unworthy of consideration, and to **** off and go elsewhere if they didn't like it. Predictable, but your interpersonal skills are sorely lacking if you thought that was your best response.

Quote from: RE
i been at this game way longer than you guys, and because of that the Diner is not a no-show personal website.

You haven't been at the "appreciating freedom of speech" game longer than GO and I. You certainly haven't been at the peak oil game longer than I. it is unlikely you have been at the "disgust of BAU" game longer than GO or I. Your appreciation for time in the "game" isn't necessarily a good thing, considering that this is where you learned the "power of God" routine, which is certainly NOT what my decade of peak oil forums and ROE message board experience has taught me.

Quote from: RE
If you can make this site popular , I am all for this. It is not easy to do though, so second guessing me on how I do it is ridiculous until you can do a better job with it.

RE

The ends justify the means...that part we understand oh so well. And it isn't even a surprise that you would be the one saying it at this point.

Rogue Economist

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2014, 05:51:33 pm »
Sorry you won't participate with the moderation.    Socrates is doing much better since we dropped this on and the chat is back on topic.

If you want to build your membership, you might try going over to some Gold boards and Collectors forums and Plugging the Living **** out of your forum.  ;D

RE

MKing

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2014, 07:58:27 pm »
Sorry you won't participate with the moderation.    Socrates is doing much better since we dropped this on and the chat is back on topic.

Incorrect. Socrates is exactly the same, he is just now being censored and isn't allowed to offer up a full range of opinion and critical thought. Why? Because the instant he does...just like back in the "you ain't an expert and I'm going to ban you and track you and time you to where you are going" days....the censor does his job. Movement of posts to hidden areas, editing of posts to protect the favored while the unfavored are treated in completely different ways. Government and banksters, against normal folks. BAU played out in the ethics of an internet forum.

Censorship is censorship. I have explained why it is necessary, and happens, on Doomer boards, and not on others. Nothing has changed, including me. My participation is not allowed, only a censored version of it.

Doomer Sport

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #19 on: April 24, 2014, 05:00:28 am »
I have 2 motorbikes, one off road and one road bike, they both take 10w40 oil. They are both a little low, but not due for full oil change. 1 litre would be plenty to top up both bikes. The garage has 5L bottle of full synthetic 10w40 or 1L bottle of 10w30, would it be bad for my engines or clutches if I used the 10w30?

alan2102

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #20 on: April 24, 2014, 06:49:24 am »
[the "quote" function doesn't seem to be working, so here is my hand-coded thing...]

quoth mking:
Quote
Hell, I go in KNOWING that the result of free wheeling intellectual questioning is likely to get me banned....people don't set up forums for a "studious, fair and thorough discussion", they set them up to provide a place for like minded folks to agree with each other, providing that portion of self reinforcement that they probably don't get in real life. Doom being a PERFECT example.....
the last things these folks are looking for is an honest conversation, particularly with the likes of me. I question everything.....
sweet jesus don't ever turn...analytic horsepower loose in a web forum, folks just naturally go nuts. And it is all because the belief system comes FIRST, and then the web forum allows the circular logic, justifications and rationalizations to begin.

Ha. Yes. Your ilk will find it difficult to be accepted in these parts, or anywhere with a distinct ideological tilt.

Quote
a thorough look at his postings, stories, and rationalizations for why he landed where he did in life would lead folks to believe that such egomaniac behavior fits right in with why he is where he is.
  RE didn't choose the end of the road because he was scared of doom and needed mountains to hide from zombies (see his most recent in-car video? He has as many zombies around him as any place in suburban US, with the SUVs, chain stores and infrastructure to match), he choose the end of the road because he can't stand people. He admits it. So Doom comes to him from ANY other route than buying into whatever the hysteria of the day is..RE wants to see the world he hates, the world that kicked him out after all the advantages it gave him from the get go, he wants to see it DIE. Watch it cower and scream and shrivel up and disappear....not because he honestly thinks Doom is happening, but because he hates everyone and they DESERVE it.

This is interesting, and it certainly is in line with the basic doomer psychotype (i.e. it is logical); what I wonder about is the empirical reality. You say that R.E. "can't stand people" and "he ADMITS it".  Where? Has this actually been made explicit?

Misanthropy is a general correlate of malthusianism/doomerism; I'm just questioning whether it is true in this particular case.


Quote
the internet does a fantastic job of taking little nobodies and making them into talking heads and by extension "experts"

True, but the other side of that coin is that it is possible for real independently-developed expertise to find a platform that did not exist before the internet. Further, the presumed "experts" are not always so expert as  you seem to think. It depends. Sometimes they are, sometimes they are not, and (most often) they ARE in fact experts in some narrow area, but lack holistic understanding. I for one think it is a great thing that the internet has shaken things up as it has and radically lowered the bar to entry. Yes, a lot of rubbish gets admitted, but the vastly improved access to all kinds of good stuff that would formerly have been inaccessible makes it worth it.

alan2102

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2014, 07:14:17 am »
Quoth Mking:
Quote
I have been on several more "general" boards for years, never banned, never censored, never admonished. Why? Because they are designed to encourage discussion without having a TPTB buy into a particular point of view.  They have no skin in the game...
  Boards with a theme can't afford a well expressed dissent...it shuts down those who really don't know dick about the issues they are blathering on about, they feel belittled (and my general personality type sure doesn't help in this regard) because they have obviously never taken the time to actually LEARN their position. And when it shows, they look bad. My solution to this is always to learn more...turns out other folks don't agree with that perspective. Presto...the name calling begins.

GREAT point. I wish I had realized this many years ago. "Boards with a theme" (i.e. particular ideologic slant) are by their nature resistant to real thought and stimulating discourse, and highly resistant to dissent of any kind. It is a waste of time/energy to even try. I pissed-away countless hours trying to do what cannot be done. Thank God I did finally come to my senses, before wasting the remaining good years of my life.

MKing: why do you bother with this place? You're a smart guy with a life. Why waste your time? What's with your weird compulsion to post here? (Perhaps same as MY weird compulsion along the same lines, for years!)  As surly put it to me in another thread: "Why are you here?".  Damn good question.

...............................................

"When the facts change, I change my conclusions. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes, a man who would not be appreciated on many internet fora

Golden Oxen

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #22 on: April 24, 2014, 07:16:12 am »
Hi Alan, Welcome to the Commons. It is a pleasure to have you aboard.

RE has repeatedly mentioned his disdain for company, preferring to live alone without a wife or company. Not what I consider a bad trait, being a loner type or a hermit so to speak. I am only answering the question you posed to MKing.

Your comments on the Diner board were enjoyable for me to read, and your coming out of lurker status to voice your opinion is most gratifying.

Like you Sir, I have a life and have no need or desire for disruption.   Thanks again for logging in and speaking with us.   GO
Golden Oxen

Doomer Sport

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #23 on: April 24, 2014, 09:03:33 am »


"i been at this game way longer than you guys, and because of that the Diner is not a no-show personal website."

is only the admins talking to each other and gang tackling anyone showing up to warn you why that is anything to boast about?

MKing

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #24 on: April 24, 2014, 10:20:03 am »
I have 2 motorbikes, one off road and one road bike, they both take 10w40 oil. They are both a little low, but not due for full oil change. 1 litre would be plenty to top up both bikes. The garage has 5L bottle of full synthetic 10w40 or 1L bottle of 10w30, would it be bad for my engines or clutches if I used the 10w30?

Yes. Sell your motorbikes immediately, to whoever walks down your street or road, for the change they have in their pocket. And then use the 10w30 on your cages.

MKing

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #25 on: April 24, 2014, 11:16:52 am »
Quote
  RE didn't choose the end of the road because he was scared of doom and needed mountains to hide from zombies (see his most recent in-car video? He has as many zombies around him as any place in suburban US, with the SUVs, chain stores and infrastructure to match), he choose the end of the road because he can't stand people. He admits it. So Doom comes to him from ANY other route than buying into whatever the hysteria of the day is..RE wants to see the world he hates, the world that kicked him out after all the advantages it gave him from the get go, he wants to see it DIE. Watch it cower and scream and shrivel up and disappear....not because he honestly thinks Doom is happening, but because he hates everyone and they DESERVE it.

This is interesting, and it certainly is in line with the basic doomer psychotype (i.e. it is logical); what I wonder about is the empirical reality. You say that R.E. "can't stand people" and "he ADMITS it".  Where? Has this actually been made explicit?

He actually said "people disgust me" during a conversation where I was saying that I enjoyed people because of their stories. All people. Any people. They all have stories to tell, good or bad, and I love stories. RE then went off about people disgusting him and whatnot, and in that moment I realized, it made quite perfect sense, why he was hiding in Alaska. Why Doom worked for him, why he was gloating over at po.com back in 2008, you could just visualize him rubbing his hands together in glee at the 2008 collapse.

It all matched, including his admission that he doesn't do so well with folks (spoken in general) when talking about an ex somewhere far in the distant past. Not necessarily an anti-social though, right? Because he wouldn't have gone to such lengths to seek communication and contact with others during his pre-internet time, let alone get involved in doomer blogs and message boards and then forums themselves. Still needs people contact, and the end of the road provides that, because a real Doomer would live somewhere halfway up the Dalton to Coldfoot, and wouldn't want to fire up forums to talk to folks, or fly around the country to meet other true believers.

Quote from: alan2102
Quote
the internet does a fantastic job of taking little nobodies and making them into talking heads and by extension "experts"

True, but the other side of that coin is that it is possible for real independently-developed expertise to find a platform that did not exist before the internet.

Possible? Sure. And any of us would know the difference between a real expert, and a talking head, blogger "expert"...how? Experts certainly have platforms, and those platforms certainly existed before the WWW came along and created the impression that all opinions have equal value. What the internet mostly did was NOT allow experts without platforms to find a voice, it created the impression that all opinions are created equal because those awards, certificates, training, decades of experience and recognition of expertise are invisible. And then people think EXACTLY like how RE has already demonstrated...they call you names for daring to claim such a background in an environment where it is more fun to pretend that 1000 amateur opinions are worth the same as a single, real, live, actual expert.

The "expert" opinion throws the entire internet equality system out of whack, and introduces the real world back into a bunch of folks enjoying their breathless (sometimes brainless) speculation on a topic. Or in the case of the Diner, pretending that bloggers are "experts". Then all the amateurs line up behind their favorite blogger, and try and use that as a defense against an actual expert. No different than a mcdonald's worker trying to use a burger king worker as their source for an opinion on brain surgery.

The peak oil movement was a DISASTER for resource economists being taken seriously. idiots throwing chaff in the air to distract from the real work on this topic, because the first 5 minutes of any conversation was involved in explaining why resource economics didn't follow the rules laid down by peak oil "experts".

Quote from: alan2102
Further, the presumed "experts" are not always so expert as  you seem to think. It depends. Sometimes they are, sometimes they are not, and (most often) they ARE in fact experts in some narrow area, but lack holistic understanding.

Some of them certainly ARE experts, and there aren't so many on the globe that in my niche we can't all get together on occasion and yuck it up. Same as on a web forum. The difference being I sure as HELL don't have to explain the difference between curve fitting time series aggregate data versus thinking such a wonderfully fit curve is predictive in nature. Might be. Might not. In oil production, it certainly isn't. The entire game of peak oil is BUILT on just such a common mistake.

So sure, there can be real specialists. And some of those specialists are pretty damn good at holistic understanding as well, although not perhaps holistic in the sense that an advocate is. For example, Heinberg pretends to have a holistic understanding..and most certainly does NOT. He has an advocacy position, and that is not a holistic understanding. As a generalist rather than a niche expert, I actually do pretty well on the holistic understanding side, and I can name those who are better, but the real question is perhaps, what level of holistic?

Quote from: alan2102
I for one think it is a great thing that the internet has shaken things up as it has and radically lowered the bar to entry. Yes, a lot of rubbish gets admitted, but the vastly improved access to all kinds of good stuff that would formerly have been inaccessible makes it worth it.

I have no objection to the internet. I have an objection to what it has done to intelligent discourse, and that is perhaps a reflection of USE of the internet. Because more people appear to use it to verify a previously held opinion rather than research a topic and make an honest, objective and informed decision, it perhaps only appears to be overrun at the forum level by advocates, zealots, and ideologues.

The internet is still young, so maybe folks will figure this out for themselves, but it is more likely it will always reflect society, and get even worse as our children grow up in their hollywood/internet world, with less and less ever thinking for themselves. Good for me I suppose, being paid to straighten out idiot ideas on complex topics, but teaching the children has been a challenge in such an environment.


MKing

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #26 on: April 24, 2014, 11:57:31 am »
MKing: why do you bother with this place? You're a smart guy with a life. Why waste your time?

It started as professional curiosity back in 2005, literally the day after Thanksgiving in a meeting with a world class geoscientist, and he was yucking up how peak oil had happened the day before, and he noticed that the gas stations were still open that morning. I didn't understand the reference and asked him about it, he gave me the website location of oilcrisis.net and the rest, as they say is history.

I spent about 6 months reviewing everything I could find from a professional prospective, and after that it turned into a hobby. A key piece of why it is worth the time is that there are STORIES involved. Doomers don't mind talking about all the reasons they hate the world, or think we are all screwed. If you go to a backyard chicken forum, they don't share as much, they like chickens, they want some homegrown food, they don't tend to launch into TEOTWAWKI scenarios that explain WHY they want the chickens.

The hobby is tangential to my professional career as well, I have either participated in group discussions or been asked by corporate entities (Toyota being my favorite), multiple organizations, including governments and governmental agencies, to explain peak oil concepts within the context of global hydrocarbon resource estimates. I have no real need or reason to participate other than I choose to, and I find it relaxing. A relaxing distraction from technical writing, being able to loosen up and type in a manner not requiring properly written footnotes and sequential and orderly structure.

Before I began typing this response I was staring at a 3 dimensional price response surface and trying to construct a visual means to move through it in a powerpoint presentation. I bang my head against that wall for an hour, and then I take a "brain break" and read some peak oil news, or post, scan springerlink for any useful abstracts I need to acquire, take a phone call or two, and then I flesh out an outline for the usefulness of permeability maps on quantifying sweet spots in tight oil geology, and then I go get some food, read the New York Times article on Challenges Lie Ahead for North American Oil Production (April 21, 2014, Clifford Krauss) and form an opinion on the quality of the writeup by the author, have a meeting, call a colleague and debate whether or not further work on correlating formation thickness to a probabilistic calculation of a useful financial calculation of break even month in geologic sweet spots versus non sweet spots would be of value in the public realm, or do we just **** can that one and go for something more industry-centric, then I need a brain break and start all over again. A typical day, starts early, quit when a reasonable break point is reached.

The farther in time I get from my field career, where I did real world "work", (Career #1) the less what I do for "work" even feels like work. More like doing multi-discipline cross word puzzles all day long. 

Golden Oxen

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #27 on: April 24, 2014, 12:41:51 pm »
Quote
MKing: why do you bother with this place? You're a smart guy with a life. Why waste your time? What's with your weird compulsion to post here?

Alan, Smart guy is a misnomer, or should I say understatement?

MKing is a genuine Genius, and we sure are lucky to have someone with his credentials teaching on our forum.    :D :D

                                                                                            ;D
Golden Oxen

MKing

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2014, 02:07:35 pm »
Quote
MKing: why do you bother with this place? You're a smart guy with a life. Why waste your time? What's with your weird compulsion to post here?

Alan, Smart guy is a misnomer, or should I say understatement?

MKing is a genuine Genius, and we sure are lucky to have someone with his credentials teaching on our forum.    :D :D

                                                                                            ;D

While I appreciate the pimping GO, particularly in light of how others treat those daring to mention professional experience, I must politely defer.

My entire career has been the prototype for how a private becomes a general. And that can't happen without a little luck, experience in something of minor interest until it explodes into everyone's interest and you are recognized as an early adopter, being in the right place at the right time, and the uncanny knack of knowing when to throw one's full weight into the breach, dragging others along through sheer force of will to maximize impact, consequences and casualties be damned.

And then you wake up one morning and suddenly....the world has found its way to your door, and it is all quite amusing, occasionally disconcerting, and you realize that when you sneeze while facing west, everyone quickly looks in that direction to try and discern what might be there that you have noticed, that they may learn from the "expert". "But I just sneezed while facing that way!" you tell them....but they don't believe you, and some will continue to sneak looks to the west, just in case.

But it ain't genius GO. Thanks, but objectivity is a large part of how I have arrived where I am, and that extends right down to my personal capabilities. No genius required. Of more value was a farm boy work ethic, and a raging motivation to do something other than grow sweet corn and tomatoes on a farm.

Plus, I have no intention of it changing my opinion on the usefulness of gold in the current monetary system, such buttering up will not gain you any points in any upcoming intellectual battles!! ;D ;D

   

Karpatok

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Re: New Status of Contrarians
« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2014, 06:04:46 pm »
   MKing. Alan, GO, Doomer Sport, it is wonderful that you have made the long trip up here to the fresh air that avails in these parts.  It is most appreciated that you are using your great expertise to throw light on the ongoing struggle between the forces of light and darkness as it were. I, for one, cannot claim any expertise in your scientific discussions. I listen eagerly for a free and BALANCED discussion between people with experience and knowledge who are willing to impart it.  For myself, as a very passionate and feeling person, I have been extra ordinarily fortunate in never having been forced to sell my soul for money. Maybe that is the true reason that today I do not have very much of it to brag about.  But I have always cared deeply about the suffering and torment of other beings at the mercy of cruelty in power.  Though I have been aware of the onward march of Darwinian ideas of survival of the fittest, I have never thought that theory, or the bones dug up by anthropologists to be sufficient for abandoning the standards of ethical behavior given to us from dying monotheistic cultures and and economic patriarchies.  In other words, the fact that we have  an inkling of right versus wrong seems to deny any theory of "hard wiring" compelling us to continue in an **** of ****, plunder, blood letting, incest and torture.